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Modest improvements in the job market as unemployment falls
by Christopher S. Rugaber — AP Economics Writers
Nov 05, 2011 | 732 views | 0 0 comments | 5 5 recommendations | email to a friend | print
WASHINGTON — The American job market improved modestly in October, and economists looking deeper into the numbers found real reasons for optimism — or at least what counts for optimism in this agonizingly slow economic recovery.

The nation added 80,000 jobs. That was fewer than the 100,000 that economists expected, but it was the 13th consecutive month of job gains. Fears of a new recession that loomed over the economy this summer have all but receded.

The unemployment rate nudged down, to 9 percent from 9.1 in September.

No one looking at Friday’s report from the Labor Department saw an end anytime soon to the high unemployment that has plagued the nation for three years. The jobless rate has been 9 percent or higher for all but two months since June 2009.

Still, economists pointed out bright spots in the report:

— One government survey that tracks the job market by canvassing households found a gain of 277,000 jobs in October and an average of more than 300,000 jobs a month since August.

A separate survey of employers is used to determine the overall jobs number, but the household survey is the only one that includes farms and the self-employed. It also may be better at picking up improvements in small business.

— Average hourly wages rose 5 cents a week, to $23.19. More pay for workers means they have more spending power in the economy. Many businesses are waiting for customer demand to pick up before they hire in big numbers again.

— August and September turned out to be much better months for job creation than first thought. The nation added 104,000 jobs in August and 158,000 in September, a total of 102,000 more than earlier estimates. The August figure was first reported as zero.

— The number of people considered long-term unemployed, meaning they have been looking for work for at least six months, fell by 366,000, to 5.9 million. That is the fewest since April.

“Overall, while this report is not good enough, several key numbers are now moving in the right direction,” Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency told clients. He said the odds for the next few months “seem to be improving.”

The overall job gain was the smallest in four months. And because the population is always growing, it takes many more jobs, about 125,000 a month, to bring down the unemployment rate.

The job market turned consistently negative in February 2008. The nation lost jobs for 25 months in a row — almost 8.8 million of them in all. Since then, the economy has only recovered 2.3 million jobs.

The Federal Reserve earlier this week lowered its economic forecast for the rest of this year, and said unemployment is not expected to fall significantly through the end of next year. It should still be at 8 percent even through 2013, the Fed said.

President Barack Obama will almost certainly go before voters next November with the highest unemployment of any sitting president seeking re-election since World War II.

Obama, appearing at the G-20 economic summit in Cannes, France, said the U.S. economy is growing “way too slow.” He repeated his call for Republicans in Congress to pass his $447 billion jobs bill, a mix of tax cuts and spending on roads and rail lines.

“There’s no excuse for inaction,” the president said.

Hiring last month was broad. Professional and business services, which includes the accounting, engineering, and temporary help industries, added 32,000 jobs. Hotels, restaurants, and entertainment companies added 22,000. Health care added 12,000.

The construction sector cut 20,000 jobs for the month, the most since January. That industry is examined closely because a pickup in the housing market could add force to the economic recovery.

State and local governments cut 24,000 jobs and have cut 288,000 this year. That’s unusual for an economic recovery, when state, local and federal governments typically hire workers. The private sector added 104,000 jobs for the month.

But as the economy recovers and they receive more tax revenue, those layoffs should be limited in the months ahead, said Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

The number of discouraged workers — those who have given up looking for work and are no longer counted as unemployed, fell. And fewer people with part-time jobs were looking for full-time work.

The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in July, August and September, its best performance in a year. In the first half of this year, the economy expanded at the slowest pace since the Great Recession ended in June 2009.

The stronger economy over the summer was powered by consumer spending, which grew three times as fast as it had this spring. Americans spent more even in the face of fears of a new recession and wild gyrations in the stock market.

Still, companies appear to be waiting for customer demand to pick up even more before they hire again in great numbers. People have been dipping into savings to finance their spending, and that may not be sustainable.

Companies learned during and after the recession to live with fewer employees. Worker productivity rose from July through September by the most in a year and a half. More productivity is usually good because companies pay workers more without raising prices. But workers generally are not getting raises this time.

The Federal Reserve this week lowered its forecast for economic growth to 1.7 percent for this year, down from a forecast of 2.7 percent issued over the summer. It also says unemployment will not come down substantially through the end of 2012.
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